Aion 2 Global Launch Under the Microscope: Analyst Cuts NC Target as Korea/Taiwan Revenue Declines Steeper Than Expected

Kiwoom Securities maintained its BUY rating but cut NCsoft's target price from 430,000 to 350,000 KRW — a new target derived from 2026 controlling-shareholder equity of 503.3 billion KRW at a 15x target PER. NC closed at 210,500 KRW on September 9.

The cut is a judgment on Aion 2 specifically: the revenue decline in existing regions (Korea and Taiwan) is running steeper than prior estimates, so peak normalized profit is now attributed to 2026.

The report links the steeper decline to growing user dissatisfaction with Aion 2's game balance after launch — the same balance conversation the site has covered in the Korea update coverage, from the Abyss rework to the new raid's difficulty curve.

Note the timing: Korea's 9/9 update (Snowfield of Sorrow, Abyss rework, Seal system) landed the same week, and the Sep 10-11 enforcement actions (piloting bans) show NC is actively managing the live-service environment.

The key warning: the Korea/Taiwan decline pattern is being '준용' (applied by analogy) to next year's estimates, out of concern that global regions could see a similar decline after the October 5 launch.

The global launch first-quarter revenue estimate is 158.5 billion KRW. NC's 2026 estimates stand at 2.8694 trillion KRW revenue (+90.4% YoY) and 551.6 billion KRW operating profit (+3,426%), with 2027 at 3.0776 trillion / 506.2 billion KRW.

Target price 430,000 → 350,000 KRW (BUY held); Sep 9 close 210,500 KRW; 2026E revenue 2.8694 trillion KRW (+90.4%), OP 551.6 billion KRW (+3,426%); 2027E 3.0776 trillion / 506.2 billion; global launch Q4 revenue estimate 158.5 billion KRW.

The operating profit estimate was cut more than the top line, because Aion 2 and Lineage Classic carry lower contribution margins — revenue mix matters as much as total growth.

For players, the analyst debate is about revenue persistence, not playability — and it frames the pressure NC is under to make the modified Season 1 land well on October 5.

For the global launch, the mitigating factors are real: the global build ships the QoL and balance improvements confirmed in the September 7 interview (no daily/weekly gates, smoothed progression, PvP optional), which directly address the dissatisfaction pattern analysts point to.